What will be the long term demographic effect of Katrina be?
I first began thinking about this when I started hearing about relatively large numbers of former residents of New Orleans being transported to places like Denver and Kansas City after the Astrodome was deemed full but it didn't fully hit me until last night. It seems to me there may end up being a long term demographic shift as the ripple effects of this disaster unfolds.
Here's my thought: thousands of people facing the prospect of months or perhaps even years away from the town they called home, months without their original job in a strange town, some if not most will probably start to question the very viability of returning to New Orleans when the time is right. Also given the fact that the New Orleans school system has cancelled classes for this entire school year, affecting 135,000 children(if I remember the statistic correctly) parents might be inclined to stay where they are with their children until the end of the school year.
Of course, if they are planning on staying in an area for a bit longer, then they might start setting up roots in their new town by getting a job and new place to live after a relatively short time(or after they receive compensation from an insurance company), and develop new friendships and relationships in these communities, and these kinds of attachments might make it that much harder to leave when the time comes. Still others may not want to return to the Big Easy because of what has happened to them. The fear that something like this could happen to them again might make them reconsider returning to their old neighborhood and look elsewhere for a safer place to live. I have heard some of the survivors claim they did not want to return for this very reason.
I don't know if there are any guidelines about how those who escaped New Orleans can conduct themselves in their new "temporary" homes, so some of my assumptions may be wrong, though I did hear rumors that placement agencies have set up shop at some of the shelters. It is also not my expectation that everyone who fled New Orleans is going to stay where they have ended up, however, it does seem likely that more than a few of the thousands evacuated will choose to make a new home in the cities and towns that were so kind as to take them in during their time of need.
Granted, even if the number of people who don’t return to New Orleans after the all clear is given is, say, 100 thousand or more(which may be unlikely), the way these people have been spread throughout towns and cities in the Southeast and into other regions, there may be quite a few places where the change is virtually negligible, but perhaps cities like Houston will have a long-term population increase in years to come. I guess we will just have to wait and see.